Week 2 Playoffs/Matt Hasselbeck’s playoff career/QB Doppelgangers

Welcome to the second edition of my weekly blog, and thanks to a TD run that literally shook the earth, we will once again be discussing the Seahawks’ playoff scenario. This week the Hawks play the Bears in Chicago, where they won a week six game by the score of 23-20. The Bears allow the fifth least points/game (17.9) and their offense ranks 21^st with 20.9 points/game (Seahawks score 19.4). One favorable matchup is the Hawks’ secondary (27^th ranked) versus Chicago’s passing game, which averages 188.4 yards/game (ranked 28^th). Last week, New Orleans’ QB Drew Brees torched the Seahawks Secondary for 404 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs. Bears QB Jake Cutler, playing in his first postseason game in college or the pros, is not even close to Brees’ level. The Hawks D has struggled against the pass all year, but hopefully they will be able to control Cutler and top receiver Johnny Knox, who scored 5 TDs and caught 17 passes over twenty yards. The biggest threat on da Beeeears is RB Matt Forte, a dual threat who totaled 1069 yards and six TDs rushing and 547 yards and 3 TDs receiving. Forte changes the dynamics of this game from last week, when New Orleans was without their top two running backs, because it forces Seattle’s defense to stay balanced, devoting as much effort to the running game as the passing attack. The Hawks’ defense isn’t great, but neither is the Bears’ offense. Much worse is the matchup of the Seattle’s offense versus the Chicago’s tough defense, led by linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs and DE Julius Peppers. Briggs was injured for the first matchup, while Urlacher and Peppers had a limited contribution with just eight tackles and zero sacks between them. Expect those three to have a much bigger impact this time around. The Seahawks’ offensive line is banged up but was terrific in protecting Matt Hasselbeck and providing running lanes for Marshawn Lynch and Justin Forsett against the Saints. They did such an outstanding job that Hasselbeck threw for 272 yards, 4 TDs, and 1 INTs. Matt is clearly the leader of the Seahawks; without him they seem timid and uninspired. Protecting him as they did in the previous meeting should be top priority.

Matt Hasselbeck: Playoff Superstud

Matt’s performance was so spectacular that it got me wondering how Hasselbeck’s career playoff numbers compared with other NFL QBs. His career postseason record is 5-5 with YARDS/TDS/INTS/QB RATING of 2,483/15/9/85.0 in ten playoff games. Those are pretty good stats, so I decided to compare them to his contemporaries. 

The first I checked was Peyton Manning, who was drafted in the same year, 1998, with the first overall selection, while Matt was picked 187^th. Peyton is considered one of the best quarterbacks of all time and may retire with all of the top career records but his playoff record is less than stellar. He is 9-10 all-time, having led the Colts to the playoffs in 11 out of 13 seasons with 5389/29/19/88.6 stats. That averages to 283.6 yards/game with a touchdown to interception rate of 1.53:1, while Hasselbeck averages 248.3 yards/game and has a TD:INT ratio of 1.67:1. Manning averages more yards and has a 1-1 record in the Super Bowl, but Hasselbeck has a better TD to turnover ratio and better overall win percentage in the playoffs.

Donovan McNabb, the Eagles/Redskins QB picked second overall in the 1999 draft, has a 9-7 playoff record and like Hasselbeck is 0-1 in the Super Bowl. But his playoff stats are worse than Matt’s, averaging 234.5 yards/game and a 1.41:1 TD to INT ratio.

Brett Favre is 13-11 in his 24 playoff games and 1-1 in the Super Bowl. His playoff numbers are 5855/44/30/90.7 but he averages 244.0 yards/game and his ratio is 1.47:1, worse than Matt.

I checked a former legend’s numbers, Dan Marino, who has also lost the only Super Bowl he’s ever played in (1984). Marino is 8-10 in the playoffs, with 250.6 yards/game and 1.33:1 ratio, numbers similar but inferior to Hasselbeck.

Finally, I checked Tom Brady, more out of curiosity than expecting favorable results. Pretty-boy Brady is similar to Hasselbeck in that he was a very late draft pick, taken 199^th overall in the 2000 draft. But his playoff record is outstanding, even unheard of. He is 14-4(!!!) in the playoffs and 3-1 in the Super Bowl (would be 4-0 if not for a miraculous catch by David Tyree, a player who is no longer in the league and retired with just 54 receptions). Brady averages 228.2 yards/game and has a 2.07:1 ratio in the playoffs.

Hasselbeck stacks up against the greatest when it gets to crunch time, though he hasn’t started as many games and hasn’t won a Super Bowl yet. He doesn’t have too many years left, but hopefully the Hawks will make a few more postseasons and his stats can continue to improve, starting Sunday. Either way, he’ll be considered one of the best QBs Seattle has ever had.

Random Thoughts: Insurance Commercials

Has anyone else noticed that The General from those online car insurance advertisements sounds exactly like Mr. Krabs from Sponge Bob Square Pants? And how low do you have to get to buy car insurance from him?  

Television has become oversaturated with insurance commercials and, probably due to GEICO, they are typically attention-grabbing and cheesy. Progressive is represented by Flo, State Farm has the Tom Cruise look-alike, All State has President David Palmer, esurance uses the cartoon spies and “the saver,” Farmers Insurance uses Juno’s dad, and GEICO is just sloppy, inventing a new advertisement character every other month or so; including the cavemen, the gecko, the “do woodchucks chuck wood?” guy, the googly-eyed money stack, and the commercials made in fifteen minutes. This is off the top of my head and maybe it just proves I watch too much TV.

Why do so many different insurance companies need to sink so much money into  marketing campaigns aimed at convincing consumers to switch services in order to save money? It would seem rational to assume that the companies could save the consumer even more money if they put their commercial money back towards the customers they already have. Insurance is especially interesting because the person purchasing it doesn’t actually get anything; he or she is just assured in case something does go wrong that they will get it money to fix it. In such terrible economic times, Americans are trying to save money wherever they can and the insurance companies are preying on those individuals’ desperation. It would be more financially beneficial to combine all of these companies, cut the marketing department and spread the savings to the consumers. Call it optimistic, but I’d like to believe for once the average person could be considered over the bottom line.

QB/TV Doppelgangers

Last week I said Matt Hasselbeck was Sex and the City. Now for a few more quarterbacks:

Peyton Manning=South Park: Both are hilarious and consistently spectacular.

Drew Brees=Friends: He has plenty of talent, is an amazing leader, has outstanding teammates, but is also great because of the amount of heart he plays with. Friends had a great cast, good writing, but what made it the best was its heart.

Carson Palmer=Entourage: Good in the first couple of years (Pro Bowls/Emmys) then just limped along without purpose in recent years.

Michael Vick=Family Guy: Was good, forced off the air/imprisoned, came back even better. Except in Vick’s version Brian is being starved, beaten, forced to fight in a gruesome battle, and then killed.

Mark Sanchez=Hawaii Five-0: Decent QB/show; each had mild success; neither has any chance of working in cold weather (Sanchez has 3 TDs/8 INTs with a QB rating of 59.6 in games under 40 degrees).

Tom Brady=Seinfeld: Both are top of their class; win awards; but you are always conscious that there are geniuses working behind the scenes (Bill Belichick/Larry David).

Brett Favre=The Simpsons: Had some good early seasons, but now just won’t go away.

Playoff Predictions:

Seattle over Chicago: Last week I incorrectly picked New Orleans to beat Seattle (the only matchup I missed). Honestly, I didn’t expect the Seahawks to get a second game, but I couldn’t be happier. Chicago isn’t as good offensively as New Orleans, though their defense is much better. Vegas odds makers have declared the Hawks as ten point underdogs for the second week in a row and, unlike last week, they don’t have the home Qwest fans or the “nobody-expects-us-to-win-but-we’ll-show-them” mentality going in their favor. But they have beaten the Bears already and this matchup is a lot better than most sports analysts are giving the Hawks credit for. Seattle’s offense is balanced, due mostly to a lack of true superstars outside of Hasselbeck. Mike Williams was the top receiver but the rest of the receivers have been targeted about the same amount of times. Likewise, both Lynch and Forsett have over 100 carries. This lack of focus works in the Seahawks’ favor as it makes it harder to take one aspect of their offense out of the game and Matt Hasselbeck is one of the best at distributing the ball. This will be a close game, but I have a gut feeling that the Seahawks will prevail, fueled once again by being immediately counted out of this game by the media. Plus, should the Packers upset the Falcons on Saturday, the Hawks would come into Soldier Field knowing that a win means a home game versus Green Bay with the Qwest crowd cheering them towards the Super Bowl, which will be further motivation. I think Jake Cutler will choke and the Seahawks will be just good enough to survive Chicago’s pounding defense and temperatures in the low twenties.

Green Bay over Atlanta: The Falcons have home-field advantage, but they play in the Georgia Dome which does not give them quite as much of an advantage as the Bears or Seahawks home stadiums do. It can get loud, and the fans can get wild, but the Packers don’t have to worry about extreme weather conditions. The matchup pits two of the league’s best QBs against each other, Aaron Rodgers of the Packers and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan aka Matty Ice (why is this not Hasselbeck’s nickname?! Best in the league). They are both solid, but Rodgers is unbelievable right now, ranking third in QB rating, sixth in TD passes, and seventh in yards, despite missing a whole game and most of another due to concussion. Green Bay’s defense beat up the Eagles last week and should put plenty of pressure on Ryan and clog up the running lanes for RB Michael Turner. The Packers are a bit banged up and the Falcons are coming off a bye week, but Green Bay is playing like the best team in the NFC right now.

New England over New York Jets: The easiest matchup to predict. The Jets beat the Patriots in New York in week two and since then New England has just gone 13-1, including dominating the Jets at Foxboro in week 13 by a score of 45-3, and became the overwhelming favorite to win the Super Bowl. Cali-boy Mark Sanchez has to lead the Jets in the cold Massachusetts weather (which I’ve already said is a problem for him) against pretty-boy Tom Brady, the almost certain MVP of the league. The Jets strongest aspect is their defense, which gives up the fifth fewest points per game (19.0), but a lot of the success is based on shut-down cornerback Darrelle Revis (kept Reggie Wayne to one catch for one yard last week) who completely takes a team’s best receiver out of the game. But the Pats don’t have a “best” receiver; instead they distribute the ball equally, including utilizing two young tight ends, Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski. The one weakness the Pats display is a 30^th ranked pass defense, which should be fine cause Sanchez is horrifically inaccurate passing and is more likely to be modeling board shorts than throwing a football in five years. Expect the New England to have a strong game and prove why they’re the Super Bowl favorite. Unless Brady decides having a supermodel wife, being named GQ man of the year, being spokesman for numerous advertisement campaigns including UGGs and Calvin Klein, and winning three Super Bowls is enough success for one lifetime and gives a half-ass performance, but that’s unlikely.

Pittsburg over Baltimore: This matchup has given me nightmares, literally. No really, I’ve woken up twice the last week and realized my dreams were two parts of my psyche arguing over who had the upper hand; whether home-field advantage is that big of a deal, if the Super-Bowl-Stealers’ safety/best player/over-fed chia pet Troy Polamalu is actually healthy, and if Raven’s QB Joe Flacco is an overrated pile whose success is due to an amazing defense. Even as of writing this, I’m still not convinced that Pittsburg is better. This will be a close defensive matchup; the Stealers give up the fewest points/game (14.5) while Baltimore ranks third (16.9). Both offenses rank in the middle of NFL teams in scoring and yards so that is a crapshoot. They are division rivals who have played each other twice this season, with each team winning one game, on the other’s home field, complicating matters further. Since 2003, the teams have played each other 17 times, with Pittsburg holding a slight advantage at 9-8 while each team has scored 302 points combined in those games. Needless to say, this is a matchup with much vitriol and you can be assured it will be the best game this weekend (we were spoiled last week with three great games and only one crappy one). I think the Stealers just barely squeak by because they’re at home, they’re a little better offensively, and QB Ben Roethlisberger treats playoff games like he treats a club; he picks out a goal, attacks it, and won’t stop until he is successful/arrested. Plus, the thought of a New England v. Pittsburg game with the winner going to the Super Bowl with Brady trying for his fourth ring and Rapelisberger his third seems too enticing.

That’s it for this week. Hopefully I will get to discuss another Seahawks matchup next week. I’ve just got one more plug to make before I end this. My current favorite song is “Pumped Up Kicks” by the LA band Foster The People. It sounds like a cheerful, upbeat, catchy song but the lyrics describe a young boy who gets ahold of his father’s gun and threatens the other kids. The result is rather chilling and is reminiscent of The Smashing Pumpkins’ hit “Tonight” whose music disguises Billy Corgan’s dark lyrics. Truly a deep song and I hope the band has much success in the future. Link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLK7hrRijes

Go Hawks!