The past few years I have had fairly good success at picking who will win the Oscars in the main eight categories. Some of this is an educated process based on analyzing performances, prior awards ceremonies, and popular opinion. The rest is just blind guesses. Either way, I usually pick about six or seven of the eight categories correctly.
In this article, I’ll tell you who will win, who I think should win, and a few Dark Horses that might steal a trophy. The Oscars are a popularity contest as much as an acknowledgement of excellent acting, so sometimes the actors and movies that are best lose to others that the Academy members deem more worthy; either as an award for longevity, never having won before, or being considered more “artsy” than mainstream/blockbuster films.
Who Will Win is my official decision on the winner. Lock it in, final answer, take it to Vegas and bet on it.
Who I Think Should Win is an opinion based on personal preference and taste.
I will provide all the nominees in the category, then give my pick and explanation.
Disclaimer: I have not actually seen all of the movies listed here, so a lot of what I write is based on conjecture, not experience.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
v 127 Hours- Danny Boyle and Simon Beaufoy
v The Social Network- Aaron Sorkin
v Toy Story 3- Michael Arndt. Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
v True Grit- Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
v Winter’s Bone- Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Who I Think Should Win: The Social Network
Dark Horse: True Grit
Aaron Sorkin desperately deserves an Oscar, for this movie and in general. He is certainly one of the premier dialogue writers alive today. True Grit may get some votes just because it’s the Coen bros.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
v Another Year- Mike Leigh
v The Fighter- Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson. Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
v Inception- Christopher Nolan
v The Kids Are All Right- Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
v The King’s Speech- David Seidler
Who Will Win: Inception
Who I Think Should Win: Inception
If you’re looking for a sure thing, this is it. Christopher Nolan’s movie was one of the top grossing movies of the year, created the most buzz, and will almost certainly have the highest DVD sales of the non-animated movies. And what does it get for all that? Zero acting nominations, no directing nomination for Nolan, and will not win best picture. This is the “Your Movie Was Great, But There Were Too Many Explosions and Special Effects for a Major Award, But Accept This as Compensation” Oscar. These are given out almost every year and Nolan gets it in 2011. We’ll have to wait until the 2013 Academy Awards, after The Dark Knight Rises is released, to see if Nolan will get his due recognition for directing.
Dark Horse: The King’s Speech. It’s very possible that this movie will just sweep through the Oscars, taking down every award in sight. Usually this doesn’t happen, and a few other winners are awarded to keep things balanced, but if it starts looking like The King’s Speech is running away with the ceremony, expect Nolan to get robbed again.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
v Amy Adams in The Fighter
v Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech
v Melissa Leo in The Fighter
v Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit
v Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom
Who Will Win: Helena Bonham Carter
Who I Think Should Win: Helena Bonham Carter (because I didn’t see any of the other films)
Dark Horse: Hailee Steinfeld
The King’s Speech is like the Yankees; you don’t have to do much because it’s built to win. Helena Bonham Carter does not give her best performance; she’s really more of a role player who comes off the bench as a defensive substitution in the eighth. But because she’s with the winner, all she has to do is sit back, collect the trophy, and celebrate with the rest of her cast.
I just think Steinfeld might win because the Academy has a history of awarding Best Supporting Actress to young first-timers (Anna Paquin, Jennifer Hudson, and Tatum O’Neal).
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
v Christian Bale in The Fighter
v John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone
v Jeremy Renner in The Town
v Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right
v Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech
Who Will Win: Geoffrey Rush
Who I Think Should Win: Geoffrey Rush
Dark Horse: Mark Ruffalo
Bale won’t win just because of his association to Batman, Hawkes is an obscure actor in the least popular movie, and Renner was better last year in The Hurt Locker and didn’t win. Ruffalo was charming and funny in his role as the sperm-donor who finds out he’s a father. He may get the “Brokeback Mountain” Oscar, which used to be the “Sorry your film wasn’t better received because it involves a gay couple, but we’ll make up for it by giving a trophy to the straight character” Award.
Rush was amazing in Speech, and his already having an Oscar hurts his chances, but I think he stands out from the other nominees.
Aside: This is a theoretical conversation from ten years ago between Geoffrey Rush and a stranger claiming he can predict the future.
Stranger: “Mr. Rush, in ten years you are going to be a star in one of the most popular and successful action franchises on the planet!”
Rush: “Yeah, ok, sure…” (Rush tries to get away)
Stranger: “No really! Johnny Depp is the lead!”
Rush: “Depp? The guy from Gilbert Grape and Edward Scissorhands? He doesn’t do big budget films!”
Stranger: “In the future he does! He and Tim Burton do crappy remakes of perfectly fine old movies!”
Rush: “Burton?! You’re insane! I’m leaving!” (Pushes man aside and walks away)
Stranger: “No wait! You have to believe me! It’s based on a Disneyland ride! I’m telling you the truth! A Disneyland ride!” (Rush starts running)
End Aside
Best Actress in a Leading Role
v Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right
v Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole
v Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone
v Natalie Portman in Black Swan
v Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine
Who Will Win: Natalie Portman
Who I Think Should Win: Annette Bening
Natalie Portman was great in her portrayal of a ballerina, but rumor is that a body double was used for most of the actual dancing scenes.
Aside- I was totally freaked out by the shots of the ballerinas on their toes. That was FAR worse than Portman pulling feathers from her skin and stabbing herself with glass shards. Made it hard for me to walk out of the theater.
Bening was fantastic in The Kids Are All Right. She had the dubious task of playing the bitchy, hated character in contrast to the relaxed and relatable Ruffalo and Julianne Moore, a difficult task that she pulls off with ease.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Best Actor in a Leading Role
v Javier Bardem in Biutiful
v Jeff Bridges in True Grit
v Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network
v Colin Firth in The King’s Speech
v James Franco in 127 Hours
Who Will Win: Colin Firth
Who Should Win: Colin Firth
Javier Bardem and Jeff Bridges have both received trophies within the past three years, while Jesse Eisenberg and James Franco are still young and have long, illustrious careers before them. Colin Firth’s 2011 Oscar would fall under the categories of “rewarding you for an amazing career” and “you’ve been nominated many times but have never won,” except that his performance is simply outstanding and easily the best of the year.
Firth plays the stuttering, stammering King George with such precision you lose sight of the actor and sympathize with the character. He perfects the speech impediment so well that I literally believed Colin had suffered the affliction.
I’ve heard Franco was fantastic and I really like Eisenberg, but this Oscar is already decided.
You can take this prediction to the bank: Colin Firth will win.
Best Director
v Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan
v David O. Russell for The Fighter
v Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech
v David Fincher for The Social Network
v Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for True Grit
Who Will Win: Tom Hooper
Who I Think Should Win: Christopher Nolan for Inception
Seriously, how could Nolan not even be nominated?! Maybe he doesn’t get the absolute best performances from his actors, but I think Inception is so visually spectacular it at least deserves recognition.
Tom Hooper did an unbelievable job in all facets making this film come together. He perfected everything from the acting to the scenery to the costumes to the props to, well, everything else that makes a movie amazing.
Best Picture
v Black Swan
v The Fighter
v Inception
v The Kids Are All Right
v The King’s Speech
v 127 Hours
v The Social Network
v Toy Story
v True Grit
v Winter’s Bone
Who Will Win: The King’s Speech
Who Should Win: The Social Network
This category could really go either way, with both Speech and Network (and Inception, but it won’t win) deserving the Best Picture Award. In the end, I think it will come down to the Academy being filled with older voters who love movies like The King’s Speech for multiple reasons. For one, it is a period piece, which makes it the favorite over the modern Facebook movie because it involves elaborate costumes, sets, and props. Secondly, it is British and for some reason that makes it seem classier. Thirdly, it revolves around one of the most significant events in history, World War II. While I’m not sure how we will look back on the creation of Facebook in sixty years (I’m guessing somewhere between trivial and the beginning of the robot apocalypse), I am pretty sure it won’t live up to “war” status.
All that being said, as long as Facebook remains culturally relevant (I haven’t heard anyone begging for the MySpace movie), then I believe The Social Network will remain the more well-known and popular movie going forward into the future. I don’t think it will be a situation where either movie got absolutely robbed of the Best Picture Award, like Shakespeare in Love beating Saving Private Ryan (by the way, Firth was in Shakespeare in Love, so think about that), but it will be upsetting if ten years from now The Social Network is considered a modern classic and The King’s Speech is the answer to obscure Oscar trivia.
Well, that’s it from me and hopefully some of my predictions come true. That is five total wins for The King's Speech, which is moninated for twelve awards total and will definitely win at least eight. I’ll be watching the Oscars on Sunday with the same intensity as a gambling addict who bet all his money on the Super Bowl.
Next year, I’ll definitely try to see more movies so that my opinions can be more complete.
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